出题人规律检索 · 剑17 两篇（Insight or evolution ＋ The thylacine）

Insight or evolution?

P1 句1Scientific discovery is popularly believed to result from the sheer genius of such intellectual stars as naturalist Charles Darwin and theoretical physicist Albert Einstein. Our view of such unique contributions to science often disregards the person’s prior experience and the efforts of their lesser-known predecessors. 句3Conventional wisdom also places great weight on insight in promoting breakthrough scientific achievements, as if ideas spontaneously pop into someone’s head – fully formed and functional.律10

P2 句4There may be some limited truth to this view. However, we believe that it largely misrepresents the real nature of scientific discovery, as well as that of creativity and innovation in many other realms of human endeavor.律4律5

P3 句5Setting aside such greats as Darwin and Einstein – whose monumental contributions are duly celebrated – we suggest that innovation is more a process of trial and error, where two steps forward may sometimes come with one step back, as well as one or more steps to the right or left.律4律9 This evolutionary view of human innovation undermines the notion of creative genius and recognizes the cumulative nature of scientific progress.

P4 句7Consider one unheralded scientist: John Nicholson, a mathematical physicist working in the 1910s who postulated the existence of ‘proto-elements’ in outer space.律1律2 句8By combining different numbers of weights of these proto-elements’ atoms, Nicholson could recover the weights of all the elements in the then-known periodic table.律2 句9These successes are all the more noteworthy given the fact that Nicholson was wrong about the presence of proto-elements: they do not actually exist.律2律5 句10Yet, amid his often fanciful theories and wild speculations, Nicholson also proposed a novel theory about the structure of atoms.律2律5 句11Niels Bohr, the Nobel prize-winning father of modern atomic theory, jumped off from this interesting idea to conceive his now-famous model of the atom.律2

P5 What are we to make of this story? One might simply conclude that science is a collective and cumulative enterprise. That may be true, but there may be a deeper insight to be gleaned. 句13We propose that science is constantly evolving, much as species of animals do.律4律8 句14In biological systems, organisms may display new characteristics that result from random genetic mutations. In the same way, random, arbitrary or accidental mutations of ideas may help pave the way for advances in science. If mutations prove beneficial, then the animal or the scientific theory will continue to thrive and perhaps reproduce.律8

P6 Support for this evolutionary view of behavioral innovation comes from many domains. Consider one example of an influential innovation in US horseracing. 句15The so-called ‘acey-deucy’ stirrup placement, in which the rider’s foot in his left stirrup is placed as much as 25 centimeters lower than the right, is believed to confer important speed advantages when turning on oval tracks.律1律9 句16It was developed by a relatively unknown jockey named Jackie Westrope.律2 句17Had Westrope conducted methodical investigations or examined extensive film records in a shrewd plan to outrun his rivals? Had he foreseen the speed advantage that would be conferred by riding acey-deucy? No.律6律2 句18He suffered a leg injury, which left him unable to fully bend his left knee.律2 句19His modification just happened to coincide with enhanced left-hand turning performance. This led to the rapid and widespread adoption of riding acey-deucy by many riders, a racing style which continues in today’s thoroughbred racing.律6律2

P7 句20Plenty of other stories show that fresh advances can arise from error, misadventure, and also pure serendipity – a happy accident.律7 句21For example, in the early 1970s, two employees of the company 3M each had a problem: Spencer Silver had a product – a glue which was only slightly sticky – and no use for it, while his colleague Art Fry was trying to figure out how to affix temporary bookmarks in his hymn book without damaging its pages.律7律2律9 The solution to both these problems was the invention of the brilliantly simple yet phenomenally successful Post-It note. 句23Such examples give lie to the claim that ingenious, designing minds are responsible for human creativity and invention.律7 句24Far more banal and mechanical forces may be at work; forces that are fundamentally connected to the laws of science.律7

P8 句25The notions of insight, creativity and genius are often invoked, but they remain vague and of doubtful scientific utility, especially when one considers the diverse and enduring contributions of individuals such as Plato, Leonardo da Vinci, Shakespeare, Beethoven, Galileo, Newton, Kepler, Curie, Pasteur and Edison.律5律2 句26These notions merely label rather than explain the evolution of human innovations.律5 We need another approach, and there is a promising candidate.

P9 句27The Law of Effect was advanced by psychologist Edward Thorndike in 1898, some 40 years after Charles Darwin published his groundbreaking work on biological evolution, On the Origin of Species.律3律2 句28This simple law holds that organisms tend to repeat successful behaviors and to refrain from performing unsuccessful ones.律3律4 句29Just like Darwin’s Law of Natural Selection, the Law of Effect involves an entirely mechanical process of variation and selection, without any end objective in sight.律3律8

P10 Of course, the origin of human innovation demands much further study. 句30In particular, the provenance of the raw material on which the Law of Effect operates is not as clearly known as that of the genetic mutations on which the Law of Natural Selection operates.律9律8 句31The generation of novel ideas and behaviors may not be entirely random, but constrained by prior successes and failures – of the current individual (such as Bohr) or of predecessors (such as Nicholson).律5律2

P11 句32The time seems right for abandoning the naive notions of intelligent design and genius, and for scientifically exploring the true origins of creative behavior.律10律4

The thylacine

P1 句1The extinct thylacine, also known as the Tasmanian tiger, was a marsupial that bore a superficial resemblance to a dog.律1律10 句2Its most distinguishing feature was the 13–19 dark brown stripes over its back, beginning at the rear of the body and extending onto the tail.律3 句3The thylacine’s average nose-to-tail length for adult males was 162.6 cm, compared to 153.7 cm for females.律3律8

P2 句4The thylacine appeared to occupy most types of terrain except dense rainforest, with open eucalyptus forest thought to be its prime habitat.律5 句5In terms of feeding, it was exclusively carnivorous, and its stomach was muscular with an ability to distend so that it could eat large amounts of food at one time, probably an adaptation to compensate for long periods when hunting was unsuccessful and food scarce.律6律9 句6The thylacine was not a fast runner and probably caught its prey by exhausting it during a long pursuit.律5 句7During long-distance chases, thylacines were likely to have relied more on scent than any other sense.律8

P3 句8Despite the common name ‘tiger’, the thylacine had a shy, nervous temperament.律1律5 句9Although mainly nocturnal, it was sighted moving during the day and some individuals were even recorded basking in the sun.律5律6 句10The thylacine, like all marsupials, was tiny and hairless when born.律8 句11Newborns crawled into the pouch on the belly of their mother, and attached themselves to one of the four teats, remaining there for up to three months.律3律9

P4 句12Approximately 4,000 years ago, the thylacine was widespread throughout New Guinea and most of mainland Australia, as well as the island of Tasmania.律3 句13The most recent, well-dated occurrence of a thylacine on the mainland is a carbon-dated fossil from Murray Cave in Western Australia, which is around 3,100 years old.律3律9 句14Its extinction coincided closely with the arrival of wild dogs called dingoes in Australia and a similar predator in New Guinea.律3 句15Dingoes never reached Tasmania, and most scientists see this as the main reason for the thylacine’s survival there.律6律4

P5 句16The dramatic decline of the thylacine in Tasmania, which began in the 1830s and continued for a century, is generally attributed to the relentless efforts of sheep farmers and bounty hunters with shotguns.律3律7律9 句17While this determined campaign undoubtedly played a large part, it is likely that various other factors also contributed to the decline and eventual extinction of the species.律5律4 句18These include competition with wild dogs introduced by European settlers, loss of habitat along with the disappearance of prey species, and a distemper-like disease which may also have affected the thylacine.律7

P6 句19There was only one successful attempt to breed a thylacine in captivity, at Melbourne Zoo in 1899.律3律6 句20This was despite the large numbers that went through some zoos, particularly London Zoo and Hobart Zoo.律5 句21The famous naturalist John Gould foresaw the thylacine’s demise when he published his Mammals of Australia between 1848 and 1863, writing, ‘The numbers of this singular animal will speedily diminish, extermination will have its full sway, and it will then, like the wolf of England and Scotland, be recorded as an animal of the past.’律2律3律8律9

P7 句22However, there seems to have been little public pressure to preserve the thylacine, nor was much concern expressed by scientists at the decline of this species in the decades that followed.律5律6律9 句23A notable exception was T.T. Flynn, Professor of Biology at the University of Tasmania.律2 句24In 1914, he was sufficiently concerned about the scarcity of the thylacine to suggest that some should be captured and placed on a small island.律2律3律4

P8 句25But it was not until 1929, with the species on the very edge of extinction, that Tasmania’s Animals and Birds Protection Board passed a motion protecting thylacines only for the month of December, which was thought to be their prime breeding season.律5律6律9律3 句26The last known wild thylacine to be killed was shot by a farmer in the north-east of Tasmania in 1930, leaving just captive specimens.律3律6 句27Official protection of the species by the Tasmanian government was introduced in July 1936, 59 days before the last known individual died in Hobart Zoo on 7th September, 1936.律3律9

P9 句28There have been numerous expeditions and searches for the thylacine over the years, none of which has produced definitive evidence that thylacines still exist.律9律5 句29The species was declared extinct by the Tasmanian government in 1986.律3律10

Palm oil

A 句1Palm oil is an edible oil derived from the fruit of the African oil palm tree, and is currently the most consumed vegetable oil in the world.律1律10 句2It’s almost certainly in the soap we wash with in the morning, the sandwich we have for lunch, and the biscuits we snack on during the day.律7 句3Why is palm oil so attractive for manufacturers? Primarily because its unique properties – such as remaining solid at room temperature – make it an ideal ingredient for long-term preservation, allowing many packaged foods on supermarket shelves to have ‘best before’ dates of months, even years, into the future.律6律9

B 句4Between 1990 and 2012, the global land area devoted to growing oil palm trees grew from 6 to 17 million hectares, now accounting for around ten percent of total cropland in the entire world.律3 句5From a mere two million tonnes of palm oil being produced annually globally 50 years ago, there are now around 60 million tonnes produced every single year, a figure looking likely to double or even triple by the middle of the century.律3

C 句6However, there are multiple reasons why conservationists cite the rapid spread of oil palm plantations as a major concern.律4律5 There are countless news stories of deforestation, habitat destruction and dwindling species populations, all as a direct result of land clearing to establish oil palm tree monoculture on an industrial scale, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia. 句8Endangered species – most famously the Sumatran orangutan, but also rhinos, elephants, tigers, and numerous other fauna – have suffered from the unstoppable spread of oil palm plantations.律7律9

D 句9‘Palm oil is surely one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity,’ declares Dr Farnon Ellwood of the University of the West of England, Bristol.律2律4 ‘Palm oil is replacing rainforest, and rainforest is where all the species are. That’s a problem.’ This has led to some radical questions among environmentalists, such as whether consumers should try to boycott palm oil entirely. 句12Meanwhile Bhavani Shankar, Professor at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, argues, ‘It’s easy to say that palm oil is the enemy… But given the complexity of the argument, I think a much more nuanced story is closer to the truth.’律2律4

E One response to the boycott movement has been the argument for the vital role palm oil plays in lifting many millions of people in the developing world out of poverty. 句14Is it desirable to have palm oil boycotted, replaced, eliminated from the global supply chain, given how many low-income people in developing countries depend on it for their livelihoods?律6律5 How best to strike a utilitarian balance between these competing factors has become a serious bone of contention.

F 句16Even the deforestation argument isn’t as straightforward as it seems.律5 句17Oil palm plantations produce at least four and potentially up to ten times more oil per hectare than soybean, rapeseed, sunflower or other competing oils.律3律8 句18That immensely high yield – which is predominantly what makes it so profitable – is potentially also an ecological benefit.律8 If ten times more palm oil can be produced from a patch of land than any competing oil, then ten times more land would need to be cleared in order to produce the same volume of oil from that competitor. 句21Crops vary in the degree to which they sequester carbon – in other words, the amount of carbon they capture from the atmosphere and store within the plant.律9 句22The more carbon a plant sequesters, the more it reduces the effect of climate change.律8 句23As Shankar explains: ‘[Palm oil production] actually sequesters more carbon in some ways than other alternatives… But if it’s replacing rice, for example, it might actually sequester more carbon.’律2律4律8

G 句24The industry is now regulated by a group called the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), consisting of palm growers, retailers, product manufacturers, and other interested parties.律1 句25Over the past decade or so, an agreement has gradually been reached regarding standards that producers of palm oil have to meet in order for their product to be regarded as officially ‘sustainable’.律3律9 句26The RSPO insists upon no virgin forest clearing, transparency and regular assessment of carbon stocks, among other criteria.律7 句27Only once these requirements are fully satisfied is the oil allowed to be sold as certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO).律9 句28Recent figures show that the RSPO now certifies around 12 million tonnes of palm oil annually, equivalent to roughly 21 percent of the world’s total palm oil production.律3

H 句29There is even hope that oil palm plantations might not need to be such sterile monocultures, or ‘green deserts’, as Ellwood describes them.律1 句30The bird’s nest fern (Asplenium nidus) grows on trees in an epiphytic fashion (meaning it’s dependent on the tree only for support, not for nutrients), and is native to many tropical regions, where as a keystone species it performs a vital ecological role.律1律5律9 句31Ellwood believes that reintroducing the bird’s nest fern into oil palm plantations could potentially allow these areas to recover their biodiversity, providing a home for all manner of species, from fungi and bacteria, to invertebrates such as insects, amphibians, reptiles and even mammals.律2律4律10

Building the Skyline: The Birth and Growth of Manhattan’s Skyscrapers

P1 句1In Building the Skyline, Jason Barr takes the reader through a detailed history of New York City.律10 句2The book combines geology, history, economics, and a lot of data to explain why business clusters developed where they did and how the early decisions of workers and firms shaped the skyline we see today.律7律10 Building the Skyline is organized into two distinct parts. 句4The first is primarily historical and addresses New York’s settlement and growth from 1609 to 1900; the second deals primarily with the 20th century and is a compilation of chapters commenting on different aspects of New York’s urban development.律3 句5The tone and organization of the book changes somewhat between the first and second parts, as the latter chapters incorporate aspects of Barr’s related research papers.律4

P2 句6Barr begins chapter one by taking the reader on a ‘helicopter time-machine’ ride – giving a fascinating account of how the New York landscape in 1609 might have looked from the sky.律1律6律3 句7He then moves on to a subterranean walking tour of the city, indicating the location of rock and water below the subsoil, before taking the reader back to the surface.律9 句8His love of the city comes through as he describes various facts about the location of the New York residence of early 19th-century vice-president Aaron Burr as well as a number of legends about the city.律2

P3 句9Chapters two and three take the reader up to the Civil War (1861–1865), with chapter two focusing on the early development of land and the implementation of a grid system in 1811.律3 句10Both chapters are informative and well researched and set the stage for the economic analysis that comes later in the book.律4律6 句11I would have liked Barr to expand upon his claim that existing tenements prevented skyscrapers in certain neighborhoods because ‘likely no skyscraper developer was interested in performing the necessary “slum clearance”’.律6律9 句12Later in the book, Barr makes the claim that the depth of bedrock was not a limiting factor for developers, as foundation costs were a small fraction of the cost of development.律2律4 句13At first glance, it is not obvious why slum clearance would be limiting, while more expensive foundations would not.律5律9

P4 Chapter four focuses on immigration and the location of neighborhoods and tenements in the late 19th century. 句15Barr identifies four primary immigrant enclaves and analyzes their locations in terms of the amenities available in the area.律5 句16Most of these enclaves were located on the least valuable land, between the industries located on the waterfront and the wealthy neighborhoods bordering Central Park.律9

P5 Part two of the book begins with a discussion of the economics of skyscraper height. 句18In chapter five, Barr distinguishes between engineering height, economic height, and developer height where engineering height is the tallest building that can be safely made at a given time, economic height is the height that is most efficient from society’s point of view, and developer height is the actual height chosen by the developer, who is attempting to maximize return on investment.律1律9 句20For example, the introduction of iron and steel skeletal frames made thick, load-bearing walls unnecessary, expanding the usable square footage of buildings and increasing the use of windows and availability of natural light.律7 句21Chapter six then presents data on building height throughout the 20th century and uses regression analysis to ‘predict’ building construction.律1 句22While less technical than the research paper on which the chapter is based, it is probably more technical than would be preferred by a general audience.律6律8

P6 句23Chapter seven tackles the ‘bedrock myth’, the assumption that the absence of bedrock close to the surface between Downtown and Midtown New York is the reason for skyscrapers not being built between the two urban centers.律1律9 句24Rather, Barr argues that while deeper bedrock does increase foundation costs, these costs were neither prohibitively high nor were they large compared to the overall cost of building a skyscraper.律4律5律8律9 句25What I enjoyed the most about this chapter was Barr’s discussion of how foundations are actually built.律6 句26He describes the use of caissons, which enable workers to dig down for considerable distances, often below the water table, until they reach bedrock.律1律9 句27Barr’s thorough technological history discusses not only how caissons work, but also the dangers involved.律7 句28While this chapter references empirical research papers, it is a relatively easy read.律5

P7 句29Chapter eight contains lengthy discussions of urban economic theory that may serve as a distraction to readers primarily interested in New York.律6 句30However, they would be well-suited for undergraduates learning about the economics of cities.律5 句31In the next chapter, Barr considers two of the primary explanations for the building boom of the 1920s, the first being exuberance, and the second being financing.律9 句32He uses data to assess the viability of these two explanations and finds that supply and demand factors explain much of the development of the 1920s; though it enabled the boom, cheap credit was not, he argues, the primary cause.律4律5律9

P8 句33In the final chapter (chapter 10), Barr discusses another of his empirical papers that estimates Manhattan land values from the mid-19th century to the present day.律3 句34The data work that went into these estimations is particularly impressive.律4律6 句35Toward the end of the chapter, Barr assesses whether skyscrapers are a cause or an effect of high land values.律8 句36He finds that changes in land values predict future building height, but the reverse is not true.律5

P9 句37The book ends with an epilogue, in which Barr discusses the impact of climate change on the city and makes policy suggestions for New York going forward.律10